NYMEX crude oil had formed a triangle, which broke out on the upside. However, the breakout couldn’t lead to a significant upside. From the high of $50.92, the oil has fallen back substantially. In terms of Fibonacci retracement, the fall has retraced more than 61.8% of the previous rise. A subsequent level to watch out for will be 78.6% retracement mark, ie $40.60. Unless that breaks on closing basis, the oil can start moving higher A key level on the upside will be $45.16-47.00.