SHUBHLAXMI COMMODITY

January 25, 2012, Gold: Standing on a cliff

2012-01-25T19:29:00.005+05:30

Post the five wave decline formation, gold has bounced to retrace the impulse. With the bounce it has reached the 50% retracement mark and the falling trendline. The 20 week moving average (WMA) is also near the same region. In terms of wave structure gold has formed an ending diagonal in the third leg of the pullback. Itremained well within the cut off level for the pattern, which is $1,690. The daily momentum indicator is also showing loss of strength on the bulls’ side. The target on the downside is $1,545 (the daily lower Bollinger Band). On the other hand reversal can be kept at $1,682 on a closing basis.

January 24, 2012: Nickel: Bearish developments

2012-01-25T00:37:00.001+05:30

MCX Nickel has formed the third leg of the pullback and has reached the upper end of the channel. In terms of price pattern nickel has formed an ending diagonal which marks the end of the third leg. From the upper end of the channel nickel is being pushed down. The daily upper Bollinger Band is also putting pressure on the price. The daily momentum indicator is showing negative divergence and has given a bearish crossover. The 20 day moving average (DMA; Rs1,003) and the 40 day exponential moving average (DEMA; Rs987.5) are the immediate supports. Overall the upside looks caped at Rs1,040. The Fibonacci targets for the next move down would be Rs965 – 945 ie 38.2% and 50% retracement respectively.

January 23, 2012 Crud Bears tighten grip

2012-01-23T23:12:00.005+05:30

Crude oil tested the high of $103.4; however the bears brought in selling pressure. Consequently the oil could not sustain at the higher levels. It has formed an‘engulfing bear’ on the weekly chart. From the high the oil has fallen towards the key daily moving averages.The daily momentum indicator has triggered a bearish crossover. Hence unless the high of $103.75 is crossed on a closing basis crude is expected to trade with a bearish bias. Overall the oil is expected to test the low ie $92.5 and can potentially fall below that.

Gold: Nearing resistance

2012-01-23T00:48:00.002+05:30

As can be observed from the daily chart, spot gold has neared the upper trend line resistance ($1,684) of the falling downward sloping channel. With yesterday’s negative close gold has completed its pull back. The daily momentum cycle is about to complete its up cycle and is ready to start a new down cycle. On the lower side the targets can be maintained at $1,613 (20 day moving average [DMA]) and $1,578 which is the 61.8% retracement of the $1,669.75 – 1,521.94 move. Reversal of the view is placed at $1,684 which is the upper end of the downward sloping channel.

October 20, 2011,Gold: Next round begins

2011-10-20T19:22:00.002+05:30

As can be observed from the daily chart, after a sharp fall, Gold entered into a consolidation phase. In terms of price pattern, it formed a triangle. The pattern terminated at a falling trendline. From there Gold has started a fresh move on the downside. The daily momentum indicator has completed a pullback cycle and is ready for a new cycle down. In the south, the yellow metal is expected to test the low of Rs24992. Once that is broken, the 61.8% retracement mark ie Rs24350 would be the subsequent target. On the flip side, Gold is unlikely to surpass the swing high of Rs27008

October 19, 2011 Aluminium: Ready to slide

2011-10-20T09:55:00.001+05:30

MCX Aluminium is falling in a medium term falling channel. It recently formed a short term pullback, which faced resistance at the daily upper Bollinger Band. The daily momentum indicator has also completed a pullback cycle and is about to trigger a bearish crossover. The contraction of the daily Bollinger Bands suggests that a sharp move is on the cards, with the probability of it being in the downward direction being higher. Hence the targets for Aluminium are Rs104.85 (the low) – Rs102.2 (equality target) with reversal of Rs109.35 (swing high).

October 03, 2011 : Gold: Sell on rise

2011-10-04T09:20:00.002+05:30

Gold had crossed the high of $1,911 but it couldn’t sustain itself at the higher levels. The daily and the weekly upper Bollinger Bands checked its rise. Consequently it started its next leg of the correction. It broke the low of the previous fall ie $1,702 as well as the 20 weighted moving average (WMA) and the 40 weighted exponential moving average (WEMA) and touched our initial target ie the intermediate channel trendline. The weekly momentum indicator continues to remain in a sell mode. However from the channel line a bounce is likely. Hence fresh short positions can be created near $1,700 with a reversal of $1,776. On the downside, the lower end of the channel ($1,420) is the target.

June 30, 2011 Copper:Triangle breakout

2011-07-01T08:01:00.001+05:30

MCX Copper is trading in a medium term falling channel. For the last several trading sessions it was in a consolidation mode. The consolidation had taken form of a triangle. In the last session Copper has broken out from the triangle along with high volume. The daily Bollinger Bands have started expanding suggesting that a sharp move is about to unfold. The daily momentum indicator has given a buy signal. On the upside, the upper end of the channel is 419 and beyond that the equality target is 427.5. In the south, the reversal can be trailed to the 40 day exponential moving average (DEMA; 408).

October 27, 2010, NICKEL: Scope for further downside

2010-10-27T22:16:00.003+05:30

In the last session MCX Nickel has broken the lower channel trendline. Along with the bearish price breakout, daily MACD has entered the negative territory and hence both are in agreement. Daily Bollinger Bands have started expanding after a significant contraction. The lower band is pulling the commodity down. Nickel is trading below the 40 DEMA (1,051) and 20 DMA (1,068), which are acting as key resistances and are unlikely to allow Nickel to surpass the swing high of 1,075. On the downside 973 and 940 ie 50% and 61.8% retracement marks respectively are key levels to watch out for.

October 25, 2010, Copper: Multiple supports

2010-10-26T09:50:00.003+05:30

Copper is trading above the high of $3.68. In terms of price pattern, the red metal had formed a running triangle and has now broken out on the upside. It has formed a channel within a channel. It has recently taken support at the lower end of the smaller channel. Though the daily MACD is showing a loss of momentum, the lower end of both the channels along with the 21 DEMA are key supports. Unless these supports ($3.7) break on a closing basis, the upside target is valid. Hence the target for the metal would be the junction of 123.6% mark ($3.9) and the upper end of the smaller channel ie $4.0

October 22, 2010, Zinc on a trek

2010-10-24T22:06:00.002+05:30

MCX Zinc is rising in a medium term rising channel. The daily chart shows that it has broken out from a flag correction. The correction found support at the lower end of the channel as well as at 21 and 50 DEMA. Zinc has started forming a higher top - higher bottom pattern on the daily chart, which is a bullish sign. The larger pictureshows that Zinc has broken out from a long term falling trendline. Daily MACD has formed a zero line reversal and has started the next cycle up. Unless the base metal breaks,the bottom of the recent consolidation ie 104.6, and the upper end of the channel ie 118 would be the targets from a medium term perspective.

October 18, 2010,Crude oil: Consolidation mode

2010-10-18T20:12:00.003+05:30

After surpassing the upper end of the rising channel as well as a crucial falling trendline, crude oil is in a consolidation mode. The consolidation can take form of a triangle or a flag. Crude oil has multiple supports in the south. The daily MACD is rising in a channelised manner. The commodity is trading above the short term as well as the medium term moving averages viz 21-50 DEMA and 21- 50 WEMA. Hence there is a high probability that crude oil will resume with the rally and march towards the previous high ie $87.15. In the south, the level of $78.7 will act as a key support.

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October 13, 2010, LEAD : Bulls fight back

2010-10-13T19:32:00.002+05:30

Since the low of 72.55, MCX Lead is riding an upward channel.Recently Lead has taken support at the lower end of the channel. Near the lower end, the key short term moving averages viz 21 and 50 DEMA were there to provide additional support. In terms of price pattern the base metal has formed a triangle, which is there in daily KST as well. Price as well as momentum is ready to breakout on the upside. For the breakout to remain valid, Lead shouldn’t close below the swing low as well as 21 DEMA ie 101. From the medium term perspective, the target for the commodity is the intermediate channel trendline ie 113 and a conservative breakout target ie 115

October 06, 2010 , LEAD Poised to breakout

2010-10-06T20:17:00.001+05:30

Since the low of 72.55, MCX Lead is riding an upward channel. Recently Lead has taken support at the lower end of the channel. Near the lower end key short term moving averages viz 21 and 50 DEMA were there to provide additional support. In terms of price pattern the base metal has formed a triangle, which is there in the daily KST as well. Price as well as momentum is ready to break on the upside. Multiple supports in south won’t allow Lead to close below the 100 mark. Once the metal crosses the high of 103.75, it will be considered a fresh move on the upside, which from the medium term perspective will target the intermediate channel trendline ie 113

October 05, 2010 ,Crude oil: Ready to test the highs

2010-10-05T18:34:00.001+05:30

On the weekly chart Crude oil had formed an ‘engulfing bull’ in the penultimate week. As a follow through of the bullish candle, crude oil shot up in the last week. It has surpassed the upper end of the rising channel as well as a crucial falling trendline. In the last session the trendline has been retested. Crude oil is unlikely to fall below the trendline on a closing basis. The daily MACD has taken support at the lower end of the channel. The commodity is trading above the short term as well as the medium term moving averages viz 21-50 DEMA and 21-50 WEMA. Hence there is a high probability that the rally will continue and will take the oil to previous highs ie $82.97 - $87.15. In the south, the swing high of $78 will act as key support.

October 01, 2010, Zinc Opportunity for bulls

2010-10-01T18:30:00.001+05:30

In terms of channel study MCX Zinc is rising in a medium term rising channel. As per recent wave structure it has formed a five wave advance followed by a three wave flag correction. The correction has found support at lower end of the channel and 50 DEMA. The larger picture shows that Zinc has broken out from a long term falling trendline and is consolidating before the next leg up. The correction has brought daily MACD down to the equilibrium line; hence the indicator is ready for next cycle up. Unless the base metal closes below 95.4, targets would be 103.4 (recent high) – 112 (upper end of the channel)

September 16, 2010 ,Crude oil: About to flow down

2010-09-16T17:24:00.001+05:30

In case of Crude oil the triangle turned out to be a second wave of the pullback. The pattern broke on the upside and formed wave c on the upside. Wave c almost attained equality with wave a and reached near 61.8% retracement mark. Daily MACD has reached the equilibrium line, thus has completed the pullback cycle. From hereon, the third leg down will begin and will unfold in a five wave manner. Initially the down wave will test the low of $70.76 and below that will target the equality ie $67. On the upside, high of wave c ie $78.1 is unlikely to get surpassed.

September 15, 2010, Silver: In full swing

2010-09-15T23:50:00.001+05:30

The daily chart of Silver shows that the white metal traded in between two converging lines. In terms of price pattern, this was a triangle which has been broken on the upside. With the bullish breakout, Silver has surpassed the trendline from crucial highs (yellow). The daily Bollinger Bands are assisting the upside move. Thus the precious metal is set to test the all time high ie $21.24. Strong momentum on the upside indicates that the bulls can potentially cross the high with an intention to meet the upper channel line (blue) ie $22.5. On the downside, the swing low of $19.65 is a key support for Silver.

Crud Pressure builds up

2010-09-08T22:47:00.004+05:30

As the daily chart shows, for the last few days crude oil is trading in a sideways manner. Despite multiple attempts, bulls are unable to penetrate 21 and 50 DEMA. Presence of 21 and 50 WEMA in the north is creating additional pressure. In terms of price pattern, oil has formed a triangle that is bearish in nature. Daily KST is ready for zero line reversal. Hence crude is unlikely to move beyond the high of 3555. On the downside conservative pattern target is 3300.

Rupee gets a Symbol

2010-07-15T20:53:00.001+05:30

The Indian rupee will soon join the elite club of major currencies like the dollar, euro, pound sterling and yen to have a unique identification symbol. The Cabinet will decide on the matter on Thursday and is likely to approve a symbol reflecting the Hindi alphabet standing for ‘R’. The proposal involves a list of 5 symbols for the Indian rupee drawn up by the Finance Ministry, which reflect India’s ethos and culture. The 5-shortlisted signs are simple, easy to write and designed to appeal to Indian and international community.

The proposal, said to be prompted by the growing influence of the Indian economy in the global arena, involves a shortlist of five symbols for the Indian rupee drawn up the finance ministry, reflecting the Indian ethos and culture.

The rupee is only referred to by the abbreviation ‘Rs’ or ‘Re’ or sometimes as INR while major foreign currencies have their own distinct symbols, in addition to their abbreviations — USD etc. The same abbreviated forms — ‘Rs’ or ‘Re’ — are also used in neighbouring countries such as Pakistan, Nepal and Sri Lanka

ShubhLaxmi Commodity Level: June 23, 2010 : Lead: Bargain buying

2010-06-23T16:27:00.000+05:30

ShubhLaxmi Commodity Level: June 23, 2010 : Lead: Bargain buying: "As can be observed from the daily chart, MCX Lead is falling in a downward channel. At the low of 72.55, it took support at the lower end..."

Crude Oil Nears $80 In Asia On Upbeat Sentiments, DOW Futures Jump 80 Points

2010-06-21T10:46:00.001+05:30

MCX Crude oil futures are expected to open higher in the first session of the week as the commodity surges well above $79 per barrel in the global markets, hitting two month highs and cutting its intraday losses in last session quite comprehensively. Crude oil witnessed a very good upmove in last week, gaining around 4%. Crude oil futures crashed below $ 76 a barrel amid lingering uncertainty in the wake of the less-than-hoped-for U.S. economic data but was very well supported on weakness in the US dollar and falling gasoline inventories in the US.

The rebound in the prices was a result of bounce back in the global equity markets and appreciation in the single currency to 4-week highs against the US dollar. Dollar fell further today; dropping to lows of 1.2448 against the Euro. The US gasoline inventories are at a six-week lows right now, providing a boost to oil as the peak summer driving season nears.

However, the weak economic data from US might curb the rally in oil from hereon as the $80 levels approach. The US Labor Department said that the number of Americans seeking jobless benefits last week climbed to a one-month high. The markets may also eye data stating that U.S. fuel consumption fell 0.9 percent to the lowest level in five weeks in the seven days ended June 11, the Energy Department reported June 16.

The global prices rallied to a high of $79.42 per barrel today and currently trade at $ 79.39, up $1.13 per barrel from the previous close. The commodity is expected to face critical headwinds once the $80 levels come within striking distance. DOW futures are up 80 points and world markets seem to be basking into the positive current of Chinese Yuan appreciation.

MCX Crude oil futures for June, which are about to expire on 21st June, slid under Rs 3500 per barrel before bouncing back, extend its upmove. The MCX July futures are expected to hold above Rs 3600 per barrel mark with the critical barriers being Rs 3652-60 and Rs 3680 in today`s session. The counter ended at Rs 3614 per barrel on Saturday.

Source : Capital Market

US Crude Inventories Edge Higher On Increased Imports

2010-05-06T10:49:00.000+05:30

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) said yesterday that crude oil supplies were up 2.8 million barrels last week to 360.6 million barrels, due to increased imports. Supplies of gasoline were up 1.2 million barrels and heating oil supplies were unchanged. June crude oil dropped $2.77 to $79.97 â€“ slumping to three-month lows.

However, the gasoline demand is showing an up tick as the summer driving season gears up to enter its peak stage. Over the past four weeks, gasoline demand was up 3.5% from a year ago while distillate demand was up 5.1% from a year ago.

Imports of crude oil climbed 2.8 percent to 9.95 million barrels a day, the highest level since the week ended July 24, the department`s report yesterday showed. Fuel imports surged 9.9 percent to 3.1 million barrels a day, the highest level since the week ended Feb. 5.

Inventories of crude oil at Cushing, Oklahoma, where the New York-traded West Texas Intermediate oil grade is stored, rose 4.9 percent to 36.2 million barrels, the highest level since the department began reporting on supplies at the hub in April 2004.

Refineries operated at 89.6 percent of capacity, up 0.7 percentage point from the prior week and the highest level since May 2008, according to the Energy Department report

Source : Capital Market

Lead Can Extend Gain During Next Week

2010-04-05T07:51:00.000+05:30

Lead prices are expected to extend gains in the next week.

Weakening Dollar and rising fundamental prospects will ensure the rise of the metal. China will be leading in the triggers for the rally.

The lead markets gained momentum after the news that China will shut down its smelters after hue and cry on lead poisoning of children in hunan province.

Hunan is the major producing region of lead in China.

The lead market was in deficit by 5 kilo tonnes in January 2010, which compares with a surplus of 14 kilo tonnes recorded in the first month of 2009, as per the latest report from World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS).

Total stocks at the end of January were 5.5 kilo tonnes higher than at the end of 2009. No allowance is made in the consumption calculation for unreported stock changes.

Lead mine production was 409 kilo tonnes with Chinese output dominating the global supply. Refined production from both primary and secondary sources was 798.7 kilo tonnes.

Based on incomplete reporting, both production and demand appeared to be substantially improved on the depressed January 2009 data.

Chinese apparent consumption totaled 358 kilo tonnes of lead in January 2010, which was 80 kilo tonnes above the comparable period in 2009.

MCX benchmark Lead contract are at Rs 98.90 per kg, in the weekend session. The prices will look to test Rs 100 per kg, during next week

Gold Trades Slightly Lower On MCX

2010-03-07T20:42:00.005+05:30

MCX Gold futures are trading slightly lower in the early moves on Saturday as lack of global cues keep the activity restrained. The COMEX Gold futures ended slightly higher on Friday, as better-than-expected U.S. jobs data boosted investors` willingness to move into riskier assets, including stocks and commodities. Gold for April delivery ended up by $2.10, or 0.2%, to $1,135.20 an ounce. The dollar turned lower versus the euro in midday trading after Greece`s parliament approved the proposed austerity measures.

US. Nonfarm Payrolls employment data released today showed that jobs fell in the month of February by less than expected while January`s jobs data was revised slightly higher. The Department of Labor nonfarm payrolls report showed that employment fell by 36,000 workers in February to total of 14.9 million unemployed workers following January`s revised job loss of 26,000 workers.

The US equities were in an upbeat mode yesterday. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development said its composite leading indicator continued to signal an improvement in economic activity for the G7 countries. The CLI for the OECD area increased to 103.6 in January from 102.8 in December suggesting expansion. The measure for the euro area increased moderately to 104.8 from 104.2. The CLI for the U.S. climbed to 102.3 from 101.4.

MCX Gold futures rallied above Rs 16900 but failed to record proportional gains as the Indian rupee ended around 45.60, recording its fourth consecutive weekly gain. The MCX April futures ended at Rs 16901and slipped in the early moves today. The counter trades at Rs 16982, down Rs 9 from the previous close. The prices are likely to move in a very narrow range today with Rs 16970 likely to act as a decent support.

Source : Capital Market

Zinc Prices To Average Around $ 1940 In 2010: ABARE

2010-02-16T08:11:00.000+05:30

Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics (ABARE) expects that the prices of Zinc is expected to be $ 1940 per tonne in the year 2010. The latest report for December quarter suggests that the prices will see an increase of 29 percent from its estimated average of $ 1501 per tonne in the year 2009.

ABARE report comes at the time when all the Base metals are struggling due to Chinese monetary tightening measures and rise of Dollar.

Global Zinc consumption is also expected to increase, this will lead to a decline of 11 percent in the Zinc stocks which will be around 4.2 weeks of consumption.

Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of China (MIIT) said its 2009 yearly review that the Chinese imports of unwrought zinc was 802900 tonnes up 1.43 times. Imports of Zinc concentrates were 3.85 million tonnes increasing 61.50% from corresponding period previous year.

Meanwhile, MCX benchmark Zinc contract is trading at Rs 100.50 per kg up 0.15%. The prices are expected to face tough resistances at Rs 101.50 levels

Source : Capital Market

Aluminium Closes With Modest Gains

2010-02-12T12:35:00.000+05:30

Base metals were greeted with positive news from US, where labor department showed a decline in jobless claims. All the major asset classes registered gains with Base metals amplifying the most.

Aluminium also closed on a soothing note though the gains were modest. Domestic futures benchmark Aluminium contract settled at Rs 95 per kg as against Rs 94.6 per kg on Wednesday.

China produced 12,985,000 tonnes of primary Aluminium in 2009, up 1.0 percent from the previous year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. Output of alumina rose by 4.4 percent over the same period to reach 23,826,200 tonnes. Daily average primary aluminium output rose to 64,000 tonnes in December from a revised 63,600 tonnes in November, provisional figures from the International Aluminium Institute showed.

Source : Capital Market

Copper May Leap Forward On Increase Of Long Positions

2010-01-06T13:05:00.001+05:30

Copper prices are set to test fresh intra day peaks today. Hefty buying is set to initiate further push in Copper. On Tuesday the easing of tensions in Chile molded the prices to sell but that was only before the US manufacturing data was released. After the release of the data positive sentiments for the economy again lured participants.

MCX Copper which ended the trading session of Tuesday at Rs 347.35 per kg unaltered from Monday is now up Rs 4 or 1.09%. The prices have so far tested a high of Rs 351.35 and are all set to reach Rs 353.

New orders for manufactured goods increased by more than anticipated in the month of November, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Tuesday, with the strong growth reflecting a notable increase in orders for non-durable goods.

The report showed that factory orders increased by 1.1 percent in November following an upwardly revised 0.8 percent increase in October.

Chilean mining giant Codelco on Monday made an improved wage offer to workers at its large Chuquicamata complex, which might defuse a day-old strike.

Copper May Leap Forward On Increase Of Long Positions

2010-01-06T13:05:00.000+05:30

Copper Gains As Strikes In Chile Mine Begins

2010-01-05T09:33:00.001+05:30

Copper prices tested 18 month highs in MCX on Monday facilitated by positive triggers from Chile and participation of long positions. MCX Copper gained more than 1% during the day to test a high of Rs 349 per kg and ended at Rs 347.35 per kg up Rs 3. Copper stocks rose on Monday by 75 tonnes to 502400 tonnes.

Workers at Chile`s Chuquicamata, the world`s second biggest copper complex, began a strike over pay early on Monday, a union leader said, hitting output from global No. 1 producer Codelco. Codelco sources have estimated the Chuquicamata complex in far northern Chile, which includes the Chuquicamata and Mina Sur deposits and produces around 4 percent of the world`s mined copper, will lose up to 1,800 tonnes of copper output per day and cost the state around $8 million per day in lost revenue. Chuquicamata was expected to produce 565,000 tonnes of copper in 2009.

Source : Capital Market

Technical Breakouts In Lead Ignore Movements Of Dollar

2010-01-04T14:45:00.000+05:30

Dollar movements against the EURO have been completely ignored by Lead during its intra day moves. There has been a technical breakout in Lead which has helped the contract to move up by more than 1%. MCX Lead benchmark contract is trading at Rs 114.75 per kg up Rs 1.35. The contract is expected to test 116 levels if the trend continues.

Meanwhile Dollar is trading at 1.417 up 10 pips. The greenback tested a high of 1.4254 and a low of 1.4348 against the EURO.

Prices movements have also brushed aside LME inventories data which has seen substantial rise. The inventories are now at 146500 tonnes up 6% from 138450 tonnes on 1st Dec 2009.

Source : Capital Market

Oil Bursts Above $80 A Barrel On Data Optimism

2010-01-04T11:31:00.001+05:30

Crude oil bursts above $80 a barrel today as the strong China PMI data fueled optimism that demand for energies will improve in 2010. The strength in dollar is capping the rally in the dollar denominated assets.

China`s PMI rose to 56.6, the biggest increase in 20 months, in December from 55.2 a month ago.

Oil`s advance for the 8 day is also due to the abnormally cold weather in the US as it will likely increase demand for energy, particularly heating oil and natural gas.

MCX crude oil futures are trading pale following the sharp rally in Indian Rupee. The Indian rupee today gained 7 paise against the US currency in early trade on increased capital inflows into stock markets in line with firming global cues. MCX January oil is down Rs 6 at Rs 3721 per barrel.

The US will release manufacturing ISM, FOMC minutes and December employment report this week. ISM manufacturing probably improved to 54 in December from 53.6 a month ago. A better-than-expected reading should lift the dollar as it raises the chance for an early Fed rate hike. Currently, the market has factored in a 60% chance that the Fed will hike its policy rate by at least 25 bps by June. Moreover, pay attention to ISM components such as `new orders` and `imports` as there are signs that these indices are leading indicators for distillate demand.

However, the most important event for the week should be the employment rate to be released Friday. Improvement in jobless claims in 4Q09 signaled recovery in the job market. Analysts anticipate the number of non-farm payrolls stopped declining while the unemployment rate stayed flat in December.

Source : Capital Market

Spot Market Update: Jeera Rises At Unjha Mandi

2010-01-04T11:00:00.000+05:30

Jeera prices have been augmented by Rs 100 per quintal in today`s trading and were quoted at Rs 13300 per quintal at Unjha mandi. The total arrivals of jeera were at 5000 bags against the total arrivals of around 7000 bags reported from the previous day.

Some buying was seen in futures market as the prices of January Benchmark contract have been swelled by Rs 38 per quintal, quoted at Rs 14694 per quintal.

Source : Capital Market

Copper Likely To Gain Momentum On The Start Of New Year

2010-01-04T08:56:00.001+05:30

Copper prices are likely to open in green at the start of the new session of 2010. The prices significantly gained during 2009 and a kick start is expected when it resumes trading on MCX today.

MCX Copper on its last outing was Rs 344 per kg on 2nd Jan 2010.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange rose $45 to close to $7,375 a tonne On Dec. 31, ending the year up almost 140 percent. LME copper stocks continued to climb, up 6,375 tonnes to 502,325 tonnes on Thursday, highest since early April 2009.

Jiangxi Copper Co, China`s top producer of the metal, has achieved its 2009 output target of 800,000 tonnes of refined copper even though production has fallen this month because of annual repairs, a company spokesman said on Wednesday.Workers at Chile`s Chuquicamata copper mine are set to start a strike later today, which is expected to keep prices on high levels.

Source : Capital Market

Spot Market Updates:Mentha Oil Rises At Chandausi Mandi

2009-12-31T13:33:00.002+05:30

Mentha oil witnessed some buying in today`s trading on the heels of bargain buying of traders at lower levels.

As per market sources, major mandies of Uttar Pradesh such as Sambhal and Chandausi have witnessed the daily average arrivals of around 220-250 drums against 440 drums reported earliar .The spot prices at Chandausi mandi were at Rs 645 per kg, up Rs 7 from previous day.

The Mcx benchmark January future prices have been increased by Rs 5.70 per kg in today`s trading days and are currently trading at Rs 602.70 per kg.

Source : Capital Market

Gold Moves Up; Poised To End Year Up Nearly 25%

2009-12-31T11:03:00.000+05:30

Gold neared $1100 again in the Asia electronic session as the dips in the commodity continued to allure the investors to buy it. As the year 2009 comes to an end gold is about to end the year with gains of nearly 25%.

Gold for immediate delivery increased 0.5% to $1,097.90 an ounce. Gold for February delivery in New York advanced 0.5% to $1,097.60 an ounce. As far as the counter stays above $1092 it looks bullish.

The precious metal declined 7% in December, dropping for the first time in four months as the dollar rebounded from a 15-month low against major global currencies.

In 2009 it fetched a return of more than 25% and looking over in the year 2010 Gold would continue to be the most desired metal. COMEX Gold may target $1300 in the mid of 2010 and may also visit the $1400-1600 benchmarks late in the year. There are likely to be periods of widespread risk reduction that carry Gold prices lower too, but each dip is expected to attract strong scale

MCX February gold futures are up more than Rs 30 at Rs 16684 per 10 grams. It looks bullish until stays above Rs 16650 levels and may target Rs 16720 levels.

In 2009 the Indian gold futures had a solid volatility of more than Rs 5000 indicating the high liquidity of the metal. Looking ahead the metal`s future looks rosier, the Indian gold futures may rise to Rs 20000 level in mid of 2010.

Copper Strides High On MCX

2009-12-31T11:00:00.001+05:30

MCX Copper is striding high in the early moves today as a renewed optimism in the commodity space after a bullish Chicago PMI continues to pop the metal up. The US copper finished at 16-month highs Monday, pushed up by lower inventories of the metal on the Shanghai futures exchange and a weaker U.S. dollar amid light, holiday-crimped trading.

A strike at Chile`s Altonorte smelter plant owned by Xstrata lent further support to prices, even as workers in the country`s giant Chuquicamata copper mine run by Codelco were expected to vote against work stoppage.

Benchmark copper for March settled up 4.40 cents, or 1.3 per cent, at $3.3365 per pound on the New York Mercantile Exchange`s Comex division. The contract had surged during the session to $3.3440, its loftiest level since Aug. 25, 2008.

The Chicago Business Barometer surged to 60.0, the third month of expansion. The production index increased 8.2 points to 65.8, the new orders index moved slightly higher to 63.5 and the order backlogs index rose 6.5 points to 53.0.

The Business Barometer jumped to 60.0 in December, the highest level in four years. The production, new orders and order backlogs indices also rose. Employment increased for the first time in more than two years.

COMEX Copper currently trades at $3.3655, up 2.85 cents from the previous close. MCX Copper futures opened at Rs 344.95 per kg and hit a high of Rs 347 in no time. The counter currently trades at Rs 346.25, up Rs 1.60 or 0.46% from the previous close with 1.80% drop in the open interest. Prices are nudging close to the Rs 350 threshold and some selling might emerge in intraday moves around this level.

Source : Capital Market

Zinc Prices Keep Strength Going Their Way

2009-12-30T19:27:00.000+05:30

Zinc prices remained strong in the mid-day trades. The prices are expected to recover on technical breakouts. MCX Zinc is trading at Rs 119.40 per kg up 1%. The prices are expected to climb towards Rs 120.50 levels in next few sessions.

The global zinc market was in surplus by 403,000 tonnes in the first 10 months of 2009, the Lisbon-based International Lead and Zinc Study Group`s (ILZSG) monthly bulletin showed recently.

Global refined zinc use was 8.831 million tonnes in the January to October period, down from 9.695 million tonnes a year earlier. World refined zinc output was 9.234 million tonnes, down from 9.761 million in the same period last year.

Source : Capital Market

OPEC Production Cuts Drags Oil Economy In Venezuela Down By 6.1% In 2009

2009-12-30T15:20:00.000+05:30

The crude oil sector in Venezuela has suffered a 6.1% decline in the year 2009 even as he oil prices rebounded from four year lows according to the latest update from central bank said in its year-end report. The central bank blamed the economic fall on production cuts implemented by OPEC, in a context of weakness in energy demand due to the global economic crisis.

The Venezuelan economy contracted 2.9% in 2009, confirming the country`s first recession in five years, according to preliminary estimates published Tuesday by the Venezuelan Central Bank. Non-oil gross domestic product dropped 1.9%. Manufacturing activity, which has been one of the main factors driving down economic activity in 2009, dropped 7.2% in the year, while mining fell 10.2%.

The balance of payments posted an $11 billion deficit. The country`s current account posted a $12.4 billion surplus, down 66.8% against the previous year, as a result of a decline in revenue from oil exports. The decline was partly the result of a 32.7% drop in the price of Venezuela`s basket of oil products.

Venezuela`s economy grew 4.8 percent in 2008, its fifth year of expansion on the back of high oil prices. But it entered a recession earlier this year, later in the cycle than most nations affected by the global downturn.

The government is hoping for a moderate recovery in 2010, when it is likely to increase public spending on social projects ahead of legislative elections in September. Oil export revenues fell in 2009 to $57.6 billion from $89.1 the previous year, the bank said.

The last time Venezuela experienced annual contraction was in 2003, when the economy shrank 7.8 percent, due largely to a lengthy shutdown of the oil sector as part of a failed opposition campaign to oust Chavez.

The bank said Venezuela`s current account surplus fell to $12.4 billion, or 6.2 percent of GDP, in 2009, from $37.4 billion the previous year. The capital account registered an $18.9 billion deficit, versus a $24.8 billion 2008 deficit. The balance of payments registered an $11.0 billion deficit, equivalent to 5.5 percent of GDP, the report said.

Source : Capital Market

Anglo Gold And Lamgold Buy`s Stake In IFC Sadiola Mine

2009-12-30T13:13:00.002+05:30

Gold-miners AngloGold Ashanti and Lamgold have each bought half of the 6% stake that the International Finance Corporation (IFC) owns in their Sadiola mine, in Mali.

The companies will each pay an initial $6-million for their respective 3% stake, followed by contingent payments in 2010, 2011 and 2012 of $250 000 for each year in which the average gold price is higher than $900/oz, or $ 500000 if the average gold price exceeds $1 000/oz.

They will also pay another $500 000 if and when a decision is made to go ahead with the Sadiola deep sulphide project. Lamgold and AngloGold Ashanti owned 38% each in Sadiola, but have now increased their stakes to 41% each.

Copper Prices Gathering Steam As Strike Threats Continues In Chile

2009-12-30T12:00:00.003+05:30

Copper is once again in limelight as the strike threats in Codelco Chuquicamata mine in Chile is bolstering prices towards 15 month highs.

MCX Copper is at Rs 341.70 per kg up 0.18%. The prices have potential to test Rs 350 levels in coming days.

On Tuesday, Copper hit $7,285 a tonne with the benchmark London Metal Exchange three-month contract up 3 per cent after closing in London on Christmas Eve at $7,070 a tonne.

Workers have voted to strike at the Chuquicamata mine in Chile, owned by Codelco, which was expected to produce 565,000 tonnes of copper this year.

Meanwhile in a major news, Jiangxi Copper Co. said it has resumed production at its Yinshan mine, which was suspended late November due to a leakage in the overflow launder at the mine`s tailings pond.

It said production was restarted Dec. 24. Jiangxi Copper is China`s largest copper smelter by output and its Yinshan mine has an annual copper capacity of 3,600 metric tons

Source : Capital Market

METALS-U.S. housing data helps copper to 5-week high

2009-07-19T02:12:00.002+05:30

NEW YORK/LONDON, July 17 (Reuters) - Copper prices climbed to a five-week high on Friday, after an unexpected jump in U.S. home construction data in June boosted hopes for economic recovery.

Zinc and lead both rose more than 5 percent, tracking gains in copper after the U.S. Commerce Department reported construction of new homes rose to a seven-month high. [ID:nN19590716]

Copper for September delivery HGU9 on the New York Mercantile Exchange's COMEX division gained 3.35 cents to close at $2.4230 a lb, after dealing between $2.3670 and $2.4390 -- a new high dating back to June 12.

The big boost in U.S. housing permits coupled with weakness in the U.S. dollar and a strong expansion in China's economy combined to drive the price of copper up nearly 10 percent on the week, said Michael Pento, chief economist with Delta Global Advisors.

"An upper-cut, a left hook, and a body blow ... what a three-punch combination to power copper up through its $2.40 resistance level," he said.

On the London Metal Exchange (LME) three-month copper MCU3 closed up $50 at $5,310 a tonne, after hitting a five-week high at $5,351.

The dollar pared gains to provide further support as it makes dollar-priced metals less expensive. [USD/]

Despite the stronger tone this week, analysts still remained cautious about further upside price potential.

"Is it all built on a foundation of sand?" questioned Calyon analyst Robin Bhar. "(Copper) will struggle to sustain these prices over the coming couple of months."

Copper stocks at LME warehouses rose 3,275 tonnes to 264,150 tonnes from levels around 500,000 tonnes in early April.

Concerns about nearby supplies have arisen because LME data for some days now has shown a dominant position controlling between 50 percent and 80 percent of LME stocks. [LME/WC]

The worry is reflected the premium or backwardation of about $10 a tonne for LME cash copper MCU0 over the three-month contract. This compares to a contango of $14.50 on July 8.

"The backwardation (isn't) a sign that consumption is strong. There are genuine concerns about long-term demand," a trader said. "Backwardation is a function of nearby tightness in the market, short positions being rolled forward."

RECORD STOCKS, AGAIN...

Aluminum MAL3 closed at $1,708 from Thursday's last bid at $1,690. Earlier, the metal used in transport and packaging hit $1,735, the highest since early December 2008.

Canceled warrants -- material tagged for delivery -- rose to 152,500 tonnes from 138,100 tonnes. Traders say this material is probably heading for Chinese government stockpiles.

But dampening sentiment was news that aluminum stocks rose to a record high above 4.5 million tonnes.

Zinc MZN3 closed at $1,619 from Thursday's last bid at $1,549, having earlier hit a three-week high of $1,640. Battery material lead MPB3 was untraded at the close but was last bid at $1,670 from $1,620, having hit an earlier high of $1,705.

Nickel MNI3 closed at $16,125 from $16,100.

Tin MSN3 was untraded at the close but was last bid at $13,240 from Thursday's last bid of $13,025. Worries about nearby supplies of tin have pushed the premium for cash material over the three-month contract to $150 a tonne from a discount of around $40 a tonne mid-June. MSN0-3

Traders are concerned about the scale of long positions in the tin market, compared with the amount of available metal in LME warehouses.

Sourse : http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUSLH68347020090717?sp=true

Tentative signs of US gold rush

2009-04-09T20:23:00.003+05:30

There's much talk of the world being back in 1929, another Great Depression. For some, it is more like 1849.

Back then, hundreds of thousands flocked to California in search of their fortune after gold was discovered there, founding the iconic image of men standing knee-deep in water, desperately sorting away the sediment in search of treasure.

Now, there are tentative signs of a new gold rush in the US, according to the Gold Prospectors Association of America (GPAA).

Searching the rivers

The group has seen a 20% in membership in the last year, driven by the deepening recession and the high price of gold.

"It starts off as a hobby with the hopes of something more," Corey Rudolph, a member and a full-time prospector, told the BBC.

"The more you learn, the luckier you get."

The gold that prospectors are looking for consists mainly of small bits that have broken off the surrounding mountains and settled at the bottom of rivers and valleys.

GPAA said mining claims in California, which is the most gold-rich state, have grown by more than 3,000 in the past two years.

But it added that does not tell the whole story, because many parts of the US do not need a claim for mineral rights.

Record highs

Gold touched an all-time high of $1,011 per ounce last March and has since been trading at near $900, as investors sought the traditional safe haven of the commodity to escape the chaos in the rest of the financial markets.

Mr Rudolph has been prospecting for the past 30 years. He said he usually goes to Alaska in the summer, where he once found 60 ounces of gold in four weeks.

That's worth almost $53,000 at current gold prices.

"A lot of guys are hoping to strike it rich, but that doesn't usually happen until you've learned all the little tricks," Mr Rudolph said.

Other areas booming are Arizona, Washington state and New Mexico.

Environmental concerns

The new rush has given rise to concerns about the impact of such activity.

While many prospectors go with pans and sort out the sediment and gravel looking for gold, others are using suction dredges to suck up the rivers, sort it and dump the leftover gravel back in.

Critics say that this kills marine life and generally harms the rivers. The GPAA say prospecting can improve the health of rivers by removing lead and mercury.

There are seasonal limits on prospecting in many states and California is looking into tightening the rules.

Soures:http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/7991732.stm

Indians Flock to Sell Old Gold

2009-02-16T22:32:00.002+05:30

MUMBAI -- As spot gold prices in the local market surge to record highs, Indians are flocking to jewelry shops to sell old jewelry in the middle of the busy wedding season, when purchases usually pick up, and imports are slowing sharply.

Pure gold in the spot markets of Mumbai, the largest bullion market in the country and a benchmark for prices in other local markets, rose to 14,770 rupees ($304) per 10 grams Thursday, up from the previous high of 14,265 rupees/10 grams early in the week.

Standard gold was quoted at 14,705 rupees/10 grams, up from a previous high of 14,200rupees/10 grams.

"About 90% of people are only coming to us to sell old jewelry," said Suresh Hundia, president of the Bombay Bullion Association. "So far in the month of February, there have been no imports of gold due to the record high prices."

The peak Indian marriage season runs from October to March. Indian prices are marginally higher than the international spot gold price of around $940.75 an ounce because of the rupee's weakness against the dollar.

India, the world's largest buyer, imports more than 90% of its annual gold demand of 700 to 800 tons.

With spot gold prices in domestic markets expected to rise further in the next couple of months due to firm investment demand in global markets, imports of gold are likely to be reduced to a trickle, traders said.

"When they (traders) can get it cheaper in domestic markets, why would they import at higher rates," Mr. Hundia said, referring to the slightly discounted price offered to sellers of old gold.

"Around 90% of the jewelers are not purchasing gold from banks as consumers are selling their old jewelry and asking jewelers to remold it, instead of buying new gold," said Pravin Mehta, president of the Madras Jewellers and Diamond Merchants Association.

Gold imports in India fell to between one and two metric tons in January, from 18 tons in the same month last year, according to Bombay Bullion Association data.

"Spot prices are likely to surge further to 16,000 rupees/10 grams in the next two months as economic concerns persist globally," said Ashwin Zaveri, a trader based in the country's largest bullion market of Zaveri Bazar in Mumbai.

A year ago spot prices of pure and standard gold were at 11,735 rupees/10 grams and 11,685 rupees/10 grams, respectively.

Mr. Hundia expects prices to correct a little before rising again to around 15,200 rupees/10 grams by March, tracking global prices.

However, Bhargava Vaidhya, a director with Vaidhya & Associates, said the current rally is unlikely to be sustained for long as demand has totally dried up and the Indian rupee looks set to strengthen against the U.S. dollar

Source:http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123451783755582053.html

PIVOT POINT

2009-01-06T17:56:00.000+05:30

Pivot Point:
A technical indicator derived by calculating the numerical average of a particular stock's high, low and closing prices. The pivot point is used as a predictive indicator. If the following day's market price falls below the pivot point, it may be used as a new resistance level. Conversely, if the market price rises above the pivot point, it may act as the new support level.

Support (Buy Level):
A support level is a price level where the price tends to find support as it is going down. This means the price is more likely to "bounce" off this level rather than break through it. However, once the price has passed this level, even by a small amount, it is likely to continue dropping until it finds another support level.

Resistance (Sell Level):
A resistance level is the opposite of a support level. It is where the price tends to find resistance as it is going up. This means the price is more likely to "bounce" off this level rather than break through it. However, once the price has passed this level, even by a small amount, it is likely that it will continue rising until it finds another resistance level.

Pivot Point Advantage:
The main advantage of this the pivot point is that it is price-based as opposed to indicator-based. By the time most indicators generate a buy or a sell signal, the pivot point move is already well under way. By following this price-based methodology, I will get into a trade before the indicator-based traders, and I usually end up handing off my position soon after a buy or sell signal is being generated on a stochastic or other oscillator type system. The pivot point is especially true on choppy days. On choppy days, it's the indicator-based traders that get taken out back and shot. Pivot points are set up to naturally take advantage of their mistakes.

The pivot point is also a good system for traders who don't have time to stare at the charts all day long, or for traders who have a bad habit in chasing the market higher and lower. Playing the pivot point automatically creates trader discipline because the entries and exits are pre-determined before the trading day even starts.

Pivot Point Tool:
The other thing I like about the pivot point is that they can be used as a tool to quickly determine what kind of trading day it's going to be. On a trending day, markets will move to a pivot level, consolidate for 15-20 minutes, and then continue to march in the direction of the trend. On these days I wait for the move through the pivot point level, and then buy the first pullback to that level. On choppy days, however, the markets will move up to a pivot point level, hang around for a short time, and then drift back in the direction from whence they came. Many traders get "chopped up" during these types of trading days, losing money and making their brokers rich in the process. The pivot points are naturally set up to be faded on these days, and are one of the few profitable ways to trade the low volume, narrow range chop.

Pivot points are mainly used by day-traders to forecast the current day's support and resistance levels based on the previous day’s high, low and close levels. They are regularly used by chartists and technical analysts as an indicator which is often unbelievably accurate